Long term commodity price cycle

Nice work Danny…think I must have missed this article first time round, but glad I finally spotted it.



In a recent article posted by NASA, the possibility that we may be entering a Maunder minimum type period of global cooling was openly discussed. The current very weak solar cycle 24 is supporting that hypothesis.

This prompted me to take a closer look how long term solar activity has influenced commodity prices in the past.
The sun is known to be in an approximately 11 year sunspot cycle, which is half of the 22 year solar magnetic cycle.
This means we can filter out these 11 year and 22 year fluctuations by calculating a running 11 and 22 year average of the yearly sunspot number.
The yearly sunspot number since 1700 can be found at the SIDC site : http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/
Calculating the running 11 year and 22 year averages we get this chart (click for larger image):


Both curves are quite similar. When trying to connect it to…

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