Secular bull or bear? The jury is still out according to JH.
A solid article and well researched. Thanks John.
Did a new secular stocks bull market effectively begin in 2009 or 2011, with the recent breakouts above secular bear resistance making for a golden buy opportunity?
Or is a secular stocks bear still in progress and we are on the cusp of a major shorting opportunity, together with a GOLD buy opportunity?
The case for the stocks secular bull market would be that valuations washed out sufficiently from the peaks in 2000 to the lows in 2009, that central bank stimulus is doing enough to offset collective demographic down forces, and that exponential technological evolution will drive increasing profitability and economic growth from here. Here are a couple of charts I produced last year, pre demographic research, showing the secular bear p/e valuations progress, with the lower chart showing how I expected breakout in 2013 followed by retest of the breakout level in…
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