weekend update – the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/weekend-update-582/amp/

Reposted to honour the great man, who passed away today.

Tony Caldaro gave the greatest of all gifts: his time. He will be sorely missed.

The case for a 2019 stock market peak

Are we done? Possibly not. LunaticTrader provides a historical context.

LunaticTrader Blog

Today I will take a look at some longer term scenarios I have been sharing on this blog. It’s good to take a new look at the bigger picture at least once a year.

Back in 2013 I started drawing parallels between the current decade and the roaring 1920s. While that looked farfetched back then, here we are.
I also kept updating my Dow 32000 scenarios. That has panned out quite nicely too, even though the highest Dow target has not been reached (yet).
In my latest update a year ago I explained why a one year extension to the bull market was becoming likely because of continued low volatility. This worked out as well with the S&P 500 reaching a record high in late September. I have updated my prediction chart with latest price action and this shows where we are right now:

My price target circles…

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Equinox eclipses and the stock market

LunaticTrader Blog

The Nasdaq is falling back a bit after climbing above the psychological 5000 mark. Readers of this blog were probably not surprised by that move, as we have been calling for it weeks ago. We will be ending the lunar red period today, and then we will see if the market can go even higher in the next lunar green period. It will be a very unusual eclipse green period. More on that later in this post, let’s first have a look at the Nasdaq chart (click image to enlarge it):

The Nasdaq has gone mostly sideways in recent weeks with a few spikes reaching for 5000. This could be setting us up for a further climb towards 5200 in the coming weeks. Technically the Earl indicator (blue line) is now in bottom territory getting ready to turn back up, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing but…

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Miles Mathis: The Cause of the Solar Cycle

Fascinating new insights into the workings of our Sun.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

One of the advantages of being billed by the most self important climate discussion website in the world as being a purveyor of ‘way out there theory’, is that I can publish whatever I like with no risk of further reputational damage. So when Stuart (Oldbrew) spotted that Miles Mathis has written a paper inspired by the same NASA material we have been discussing recently, I thought, why the hell not? Miles has been developing his ideas about a fundamental photon charge field underlying observed electro-magnetic phenomena for several years now, and has built up quite a corpus of work. This makes it difficult to absorb his stuff without clicking through to read his previous papers, and you soon find yourself in a labyrinth of ‘too many tabs’ open in your browser. Nonetheless, he is always entertaining, and thought provoking, even if it will be a while before…

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‘Brightpoints’: New clues to determining the solar cycle

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Active solar regions
[image credit: NASA/Goddard]
New research claims to offer ‘a new set of observations to explore the drivers of solar activity beyond only sunspots.’

The researchers say they have found ‘a new marker to track the course of the solar cycle — brightpoints, little bright spots in the solar atmosphere that allow us to observe the constant roiling of material inside the sun.’

“Thus, the 11-year solar cycle can be viewed as the overlap between two much longer cycles,” said Robert Leamon, co-author on the paper at Montana State University in Bozeman and NASA Headquarters in Washington.

More here: ‘Brightpoints’: New clues to determining the solar cycle — ScienceDaily.

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The case for Dow 32000 Updated

LunaticTrader Blog

Here are some updates on a series of long term charts I posted last year. Interestingly the case for Dow 32000 is still alive and kicking. Who would have thought?

Let’s start with the Dow going back to 1928. This is a very large image, so click on it to see the full detail:

The Dow has reached the long term overhead resistance line connecting it with the 2000 and 2007 peaks. It has also kept above the trend line that started from the 2009 lows. The market is increasingly squeezed between these two lines, not able to make up its mind where to go next. But we are going to find out soon.

Zooming in on the recent decades we can see the situation more clearly (click for larger image):

The Dow has been sputtering near the 16500 resistance level all year. But now it appears to be breaking…

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FTSE Possible Trade Set-up

 

6720 or thereabouts marks a confluence of potential resistance: fib, 20 DMA, & channel.

It would likely be a day trade and for the nimble, but with a 20 pip stop and downside target of 40+ points it could offer good RR.

S&P Hourly

No pull back in sight IMVHO. 

If the flag forming over the 100 MA plays out it looks like we head higher, with the measured move suggesting a retest of the highs.

DYOR & WTFDIK

FTSE Hourly Chart

 

Bart: A possible origin of terrestrial 60 year cycles

Tallbloke's Talkshop

We’ve all seen the ~60 year periodicity in the surface temperature data. Here is a potential cause.

The Earth’s rotation axis is nutatiing with a period of about <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nutation#Earth” rel=”nofollow”>18.6 years</a>. However, that is only part of the story. In actual fact, the nutation takes the form of an elliptical cone, as shown <a href=”http://s1136.photobucket.com/user/Bartemis/media/EarthAxisResidual_zps3352dfa1.jpg.html” rel=”nofollow”>here</a>. The distance between the J2000 polar axis and the actual rotation axis looks <a href=”http://s1136.photobucket.com/user/Bartemis/media/EarthAxisResidualMagvTime_zps2234691e.jpg.html” rel=”nofollow”> like this</a>. Its period is necessarily halved, to about 9.3 years.

Thus, the magnitude of the component of the magnetic moment of the Sun along the Earth’s rotation axis should have periods of about

T1 = 11*9.3/(11+9.3) = 5 years

T2 = 11*9.3/(11-9.3) = 60 years

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