weekend update – the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/12/10/weekend-update-582/amp/

Reposted to honour the great man, who passed away today.

Tony Caldaro gave the greatest of all gifts: his time. He will be sorely missed.

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The case for a 2019 stock market peak

Are we done? Possibly not. LunaticTrader provides a historical context.

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Today I will take a look at some longer term scenarios I have been sharing on this blog. It’s good to take a new look at the bigger picture at least once a year.

Back in 2013 I started drawing parallels between the current decade and the roaring 1920s. While that looked farfetched back then, here we are.
I also kept updating my Dow 32000 scenarios. That has panned out quite nicely too, even though the highest Dow target has not been reached (yet).
In my latest update a year ago I explained why a one year extension to the bull market was becoming likely because of continued low volatility. This worked out as well with the S&P 500 reaching a record high in late September. I have updated my prediction chart with latest price action and this shows where we are right now:

^SP500 (Monthly) 8_2006 - 10_2018

My price target circles…

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Weekend update

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Outlook for week of March 19

LunaticTrader

Outlook for world markets with my brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 3000 stocks and ETF. You can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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Guest Post by André van Staveren: Gravity and Investment Cycles

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October Presidential Election Year Cycle Tends to the Downside

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Unplugging

NorthmanTrader

unplugging

I’d like to take a moment and express my appreciation and gratitude to all your well wishes. I literally received almost a thousand messages and I feel bad for not having been able to respond in the detail that they deserve or even at all in most cases, but I hope this post serves this purpose at least partially. Thank you, your well wishes and support have meant a lot. And perhaps my experience contains a lesson or two for all of us.

A bit over a month ago I had a heart attack. Fortunately a mild one as it turned out, but it is a life changing and quite concerning event nevertheless, not only for me, but also for my family. These last 5 weeks have been marked by substantial changes to my lifestyle. Aside from the medical requirements changes have included altering my diet, drastically cutting down and restructuring my work schedule, refraining from stressful situations, starting to cautiously…

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Keeping It Real

NorthmanTrader

realAs long time followers and readers know I’d like to keep it light, but real. And in the spirit of keeping it real I offer this latest analysis of markets.

Having traded for many years I’ve come to accept that around 2-3 times a year I’m not in sync with markets. March has been one of those periods for me. While January and February offered wild volatility in both directions (which I love as a trader) March has been a one sided affair with the occasional intra-day dip, but one central bank induced rally after another. And believe me for the FOMC to move from a 4 rate hike expectation to practically zero is action. It is effective easing in terms of expectations.

What has worked well so far this year? In my 2016 technical outlook I highlighted the downside risks. During the January and February corrections I outlined the market’s propensity to…

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Realistic expectations

LunaticTrader

US stock markets came under pressure again last week, but we didn’t quite get the breakdown that some participants seemed to expect and stocks rebounded by the end of the week. The successful retest of the January 20th low in the S&P 500 and the quick bounce off that level suggests that the path of least resistance may have turned up. Here is the current chart:

^SP500 (Daily)  6_23_2014 - 2_12_2016

The support line just above 1800 is now even more important, and I wouldn’t like to see it revisited if this market is to continue to the upside. Yet another test of the 1800 level would very likely result in a serious selloff. A climb above 1890-1900 would tell us that the new year slide is over and then we can set sights on 1950-2000 again.
Technically the slower Earl2 (orange line) keeps going up, while the Earl (blue line) and MoM indicators are…

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Regime change or not?

LunaticTrader

Stocks continued to sell off last week and last year’s lows are being tested. Is this the start of a major bear market? Or is the correction all but over? To find an answer to this question we will take a look at the “adverse move indicator”, but let’s check out the current chart for S&P 500 first:

^SP500 (Daily)  5_14_2014 - 1_15_2016

The market is testing major support. The MoM indicator has dropped to levels that are generally consistent with major lows. This means that even if we are in an ongoing bear market we would probably get a bounce here before dropping lower. The Earl indicator (blue line) is turning up already, suggesting we are near a tradeable bottom. The slower Earl2 is still going down, telling us it is still not safe (as if it ever is?).

Where do we go from here? The indicators start pointing to a rebound rally. Could…

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